Autism increase due largely to rising diagnoses in females

Rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in males remained steady over the past decade, while ASD diagnoses of females climbed, according to a study by U.S. researchers.

Erick Messias and colleagues analyzed electronic health record data collected on more than 171,000 children, adolescents, and adults between 2016 and 2024, determining the annual incidence of newly recorded diagnoses of ASD (including Asperger syndrome). They report that while the overall incidence of new ASD diagnoses rose among children and adolescents—particularly in the period following the COVID pandemic—“this aggregate growth masked a significant sex disparity.” They note, “Among adolescents and adults, incidence rates for females increased significantly or trended upward, whereas rates for males remained stable or declined.” In addition, the researchers found that females received diagnoses an average of 3.4 years later than males.

The researchers say their findings suggest that “the reported increases in first ASD diagnoses post-pandemic are due to increased recognition of females with autism spectrum disorder rather than a uniform population level increase.” They add, “For clinicians, these data underscore the necessity of adapting screening practices to detect the subtler presentations of ASD in females and ensuring that diagnostic capacity extends beyond early childhood into adolescence and adulthood. The delay of 3.4 years in diagnosis for women has concrete consequences: later access to support, accommodations, and community connection during formative developmental periods.”

The researchers add that future studies should explore whether delays in the diagnosis of ASD in females stem from inadequate screening tools, practitioner knowledge gaps, or other factors.

Citations

“Autism spectrum disorder incidence by age and sex in a U.S. health care system, 2016 to 2024,” Erick Messias, Emily Casanova, Regina Huang, Siri Battula, Rachel Loftin, McKenna Walsh, and Ping-I Lin, JAMA Network Open, July 22, 2026 (free online). Address: McKenna Walsh, St. Louis University School of Medicine, 1402S. Grand Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63104, mckenna.[email protected]