Test using single hair strand may help predict ASD

According to a new study, it may be possible to predict autism spectrum disorders (ASD) with 81 percent accuracy using hair samples from infants. 

In the study, Christine Austin and colleagues tested the diagnostic accuracy of a new algorithm that analyzes patterns of metal metabolism over time in single strands of hair. The researchers say they developed the algorithm after their earlier research showed that “the dysregulation of the dynamics underlying the metabolism of essential and toxic elements is a critical component of ASD etiology.” The researchers coupled their analyses with machine learning to improve the accuracy of their predictions. 

To create their algorithm, the researchers analyzed hair samples from 486 children in three different populations. These included children participating in a nationwide study in Japan; children enrolled in a Swedish study of twins concordant or discordant for ASD; and both neurotypical children and children with ASD in the United States. 

Analyzing 97 hair samples in order to validate their algorithm, the researchers found that it correctly predicted ASD in children as young as one month of age with 96.4 percent sensitivity (which refers to the correct identification of positive cases), 75.4 percent specificity (which refers to the correct exclusion of negative cases), and 81.4 percent accuracy. They also found that results did not differ by age or sex. 

Austin and colleagues note, however, that their findings are preliminary and need to be replicated by other researchers.

Citations

“Elemental dynamics in hair accurately predict future autism spectrum disorder diagnosis: an international multi-center study,” Christine Austin, Paul Curtin, Manish Arora, Abraham Reichenberg, Austen Curtin, Miyuki Iwai-Shimada, Robert O. Wright, Rosalind J. Wright, Karl Lundin Remnelius, Johan Isaksson, Sven Bölte, and Shoji F. Nakayama, Journal of Clinical Medicine, December 1, 2002 (free online). Address: Manish Arora, Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY 10029, [email protected]. 

—see also— 

“A new test for autism hopes to help doctors diagnose before symptoms show,” Evan Bush, NBC News, January 5, 2023